Assessing demand
Key factors help determine a vaccine’s market viability
Assessing the market is a critical step in the development of any vaccine, including malaria vaccines. For a vaccine to be successful, its development must be embraced by governments in malaria-endemic countries. Just as importantly, it also needs to meet certain thresholds in terms of effectiveness and cost. Some of the key factors that play a role in determining a vaccine’s market viability are shown below.
Country-specific factors
Disease burden
- What is the morbidity?
- What is the mortality rate?
- What is the disability rate?
- What is the economic burden?
- Who is the target population and what is its size?
Existing immunization delivery systems
- Can it be delivered within the existing Expanded Programme on Immunization (EPI) system within a country?
- Does the infrastructure exist to deliver the vaccine outside the EPI system should that be necessary?
Third party and key stakeholder support
- Does the vaccine have the backing of WHO, academics, and other scientific opinion leaders?
- Does it have the support of key decision makers in a country?
Vaccine factors
Efficacy of vaccine
- What level of protection does the vaccine provide?
- How many lives will it save?
Duration of protection
- Does it protect from malaria for at least one year?
- What are the booster intervals?
Cost
- What does the vaccine cost per dose?
- What financing is available from outside the country?
- What financing is available inside the country?
In 2005, MVI commissioned an assessment of the global demand for a malaria vaccine and of the financial and social value of investing in vaccine candidates. The Market Assessment for Malaria Vaccines (473 KB PDF) reflects a modeling approach that can be adjusted to a variety of vaccine and country profiles and that informs approaches to malaria vaccine development.
